Monday, June 16, 2014

How You Can Make Big Money Importing From China – The Rise and Fall of My Empire…

(You found this post at the right time! Check out our upcoming live event based on these importing guides – we’re revealing everything!)
Most of you probably don’t know this, but one of the very first profitable businesses I ran was an importing company. From the age of 13 til the age of 16, I imported a whole bunch of random stuff and sold it on various websites. It was really difficult when I was getting started, partially due to my lack of experience, and partially due to the fact that there was nobody there to help me.
My friend Devan Earle is thinking about getting into the import arbitrage business and mentioned it to me last night.
A couple hundred dollars worth of imports...
A couple hundred dollars worth of imports…
Our conversation made me remember how impossible it seemed for me when I first got started, and how many questions there were that needed answering…
Where do you find suppliers? How do you know what’s going to sell? When you know that, how do you know what to determine to sell? How do you eliminate the risk of scams and bad shipments? Where do you even begin to research?
Our conversation got so in depth that I decided to turn it into a blog post.
So this is basically going to be an A-Z guide on what I would do, step by step, if I was going to start over again at importing products from Asia and selling them online. I’ll also include some insights on what made me choose these steps. If you plan on trying this out, I would suggest bookmarking this blog post and referencing it in the future. I am planning on it being a complete guide and will be continually adding to it based on questions I get from readers.
I encourage you to go through step by step and not jump around, as I put it in this order for a specific reason. This is the order I would do things in, and the order that I learned them in.
I will also tell you the story of my rise and fall in the importing industry – or at least the interesting parts :-D
Note – I have since written a follow up to this post called “Step-by-Step Guide on How To Find A Profitable Product To Sell”

Knowing What to Avoid and the Basics

Import Meme
Don’t be like this guy…
You have to understand going into this business that it is a risky one. Dealing with Asian businesses is very, very different than dealing with American ones. If you go into this not knowing that there is a lot of risk involved, you will probably end up with $1,000 worth of iPhone 2 knockoffs in your garage, or $1,000 worth of nothing at all…
That being said – if you are careful, understand what you’re doing, and know what to avoid, you can make a KILLING with a relatively small amount of work.

Understand what you are doing

As with any other project you are trying, make sure you have a really clear understanding of what you’re going to be doing before going into it. Like I said above, if you aren’t careful, it is really easy to end up with a hilariously absurd amount of worthless product you will never sell. I still have a box of worthless imported crap I was never able to sell, I should probably throw that out…
What you are trying to do here is this -
  1. Find a good product – I always hate when this is the first step of something I am reading, but unfortunately it is here too. Luckily, picking niches for this is pretty easy and quick, and doesnt involve pouring through monotonous keyword data.
  2. Find a good supplier – There are a handful of great suppliers in every niche. It really takes some digging to find them (along with a little luck), but there are some things you can do to make sure you avoid the scams and increase your odds at finding an awesome supplier.
  3. Sell and build – After you have a good product, and a good supplier, you just have to start selling it. If it were me, I would leverage existing sales channels (eBay, Amazon, etc) to both sell my product, and build up my own recurring customer base. So that is what I am going to focus on.

Things not to do

  • Don’t buy in bulk from a factory until you have their samples in your hands and youLOVE them.
  • Don’t let any supplier convince you they can’t ship single samples, they are trying to scam you.
  • Don’t pay with any other method but PayPal for the first 6 months with your supplier. This eliminates a ton of risk.
  • Don’t buy from a company that won’t accept PayPal. What it really means is that they had a PayPal, and it was shut down due to complaints.
  • Don’t buy counterfeit crap. Not that there isn’t money to be made there, it is just a bad business to build.
  • Don’t buy a lot of inventory in the beginning. I started off buying 1-5 units at a time until I built up the money to reinvest into inventory.
  • Don’t give these suppliers your personal email. The email will be effectively nuked and unusable for years, trust me…
Well, I hope that gets you in the right mindset. Let’s get into the beef of it. BEEF.

Step 1 – Finding a Good Product and Potential Suppliers

This is really going to be the most important part of all of this. This is where you find the opportunities and start developing relationships.
I will tell you how to find good products and good suppliers, but first let me tell you how I initially broke through and succeeded with this method.
When I first got started, I went right to counterfeit purses, shoes, and P90x’s. I made a KILLING selling these through Craigslist, Amazon, and eBay, but quickly decided to get away from them. I didn’t want to build a business on foundations of questionable legality, and you shouldn’t either. I handed these businesses off to my friends – one of which made something like $60,000 in 3 months JUST selling P90x’s on Craigslist and hand delivering them around NYC.
The other friend was making around the same amount with shirts and shoes, but got cocky and soon found all of the trademark owners coming after him (like coming to his house in black tinted cars watching him and his family after him). He ended up paying out a sizable settlement, right around the industry standard of 3x earnings. Needless to say, he had to liquidate all the fancy toys he bought with his earnings.
And that is why you should avoid counterfeit designer crap. I won’t say it won’t make you money, because I know it will. But it is like dealing drugs, you are building a business that is contrary to the law, and it will end up biting you. Bad…
After I got out of that market, I found I could source competitive Katana swords and sell them on eBay for an unreasonable markup. However, I soon figured out that high ticketitems required a lot more capital and are inherently riskier to sell after getting a few returns and bad shipments, so I got out of that and into knives, airsoft guns, mace, and other self defense equipment. I found there was profit to be made on these when looking around for places to sell my swords.
Airsoft guns quickly became my bread and butter. Right after I found my supplier I listed on eBay and immediately started selling 15-30 airsoft guns a day, easily undercutting all my competition and still coming away with a clean $10-20 profit per sale. And best of all, I didnt even touch the product after a while. I finally found an AWESOME supplier who handled all the returns for me with no questions asked, gave me a generous payment structure, and handled all shipping. It was a dream supplier.
Your goal is to find a dream supplier for ANY product you are making money on, because then you can focus on growing the sales of your business rather than on customer service and shipping.
It isn’t easy, but if you follow my advice below you will greatly increase your odds of finding a great supplier and product.

Where and how to find suppliers

Your best friend in the importing business is AliBaba. I have used it for every single product I have ever imported. I use it for my own businesses, I use it for clients, and I know a ton of people that use it. It is an awesome resource.
Don’t fall into the traps of Doba, WorldWideBrand, Volusion, or whatever other scam solutions are out there to find suppliers. I made the mistake of trying all of these when I first got started, and just ended up wasting hundreds of dollars for little to no value. Just stay away from these, trust me.
With AliBaba, you will be looking at only Gold members. I don’t care how awesome of a deal you get from a non-gold member, or how many factory certifications they have, youDON’T buy from non-gold members. Just following this rule will help you to avoid 98% of the scams and bad suppliers. Any other certifications or whatever are just icing on the cake.
You really want to find a supplier that will do cheap samples, offers PayPal payments (even at an increased rate, use PayPal), and seems to respond to your communications quickly and effectively.
Open up AliBaba for now, as you will be jumping back to it frequently while researching product to know if you can make a profit.

Where and how to find products

There are a few limits on what kinds of items you want to sell -
  • It needs to be small and light - Trust me on this, you don’t want to deal with the headaches that come with shipping furniture or kitchen appliances around the world. You want something that is going to be cheap to ship around, because shipping is going to eat your profit margins alive.
  • It needs to be a simple item - What I mean by this is you want something that is simple to manufacture and has a relatively high margin of error. Most of these factories are not going to have the highest quality standards in the world, so the greater the margin of error you can put up with while keeping your customers happy the better. Competitive katana swords did not have a great margin for error before customers started noticing, as they were vigorously slicing sh*t with them all day (slicing rolled up Tatami Mats to be specific).
  • Keep it in the $10-200 range - In my experience, it becomes very capital intensive and much riskier if you are selling items any higher than this. Higher ticket items are usually harder to ship, require higher quality control, and really magnify your mistakes when first starting out in importing. I have yet to find success outside of that price range, so I cant suggest you take any chances in it, but of course use your own judgement.
  • Don’t sell what you buy - Devan made a great point when I was speaking with him that you can’t sell items that you buy. Most of us buy electronics, clothes, food, and other essentials. I can tell you right now that you are not going to compete in any of those markets. You really have to niche down in this and find a nice little nook for you to sit in.
  • Don’t go seasonal - You want to find items that have a consistent base of buyers. I am sure there is a bunch of money to be made in selling Christmas stuff and winter clothes from Asia, but it is going to be extremely seasonal, and you are probably going to end up with a ton of worthless inventory.
Other than that, you are really free to explore whatever comes to mind.
What I would do is go onto a few sites and browse around -
  • Alibaba – You should have this open already, but I often look around AliBaba to see what items are being promoted and check around the sites below to see what kind of margins I could get. For instance, right now there is a 4 year Gold company (online now!) selling LED Light Bulbs for $2.65/unit. Even better, they do Escrow, and have onsite inspections from Alibaba. I can quickly go over to Amazon and see these same bulbs selling for $9.50 – 11.99, a VERY healthy margin! And that’s just the first thing I looked at! There is a niche right there.
  • eBay – Check out the completed listings on eBay to see what kind of prices you can consistently sell items for. I often use eBay auction descriptions also to gain some knowledge on a product if I see it is the exact same. Prices are the main thing here though, you get a really reliable indicator of demand. You have to click on the side bar menu to get to completed listings, here is a picture.
  • Amazon – I go to this page and check out all of the different tabs for “Movers & Shakers” and whatnot. I click around the categories and drill down to find things I think may not have a lot of importers in already. Again, typically weird items, like LED bulbs, skateboard parts, and katanas do well, so I try to find weird things that catch my eye and compare them against stuff on Alibaba.
  • Other tools – mySimon Top Searches, Shopzilla Top Searches, Kaboodle Hot Picks
Just keep looking through the market data on those sites and comparing it against what you can get from Alibaba. It may take some time, but eventually you will naturally learn what works and you will start finding great product opportunities left and right. If you really have issues finding a product, comment below or email me and I will see if I can help [will at startupbros dot com]
Eventually you’ll find some opportunities that you want to move forward with. The next step is to start talking to suppliers and getting your hands on some samples. Don’t worry, they all speak english (kind of)…

 Indentify & Mail Key Suppliers

Now that we have a product, we can start sorting through suppliers and contacting the ones that look promising.
All I would do is -
  1. Search for LED light bulb in Alibaba with the correct filters – You should have already been doing this before to check your product costs in the previous steps. At this point though, we want to switch to searching for “Suppliers” rather than “Products”, as seen in the picture below. I typically start with filtering by “Gold Supplier” and adding “Onsite Checked”, “Assessed Supplier”, and “Escrow” in that order until I am down to 20-30 suppliers. If there are still a ton, that is fine. Just try to find some way to narrow it down to the very best and take the 20-30 top ones.
  2. Contact the good ones – Now that you have a list of the prime suppliers for your product, you want to contact them and get some additional information. I usually just ask about their MOQ (Minumum Order Quantity), payment and shipping policies, sample policy, and a price list or product spec sheet. They usually have all of this on hand. IMPORTANT – Don’t use your personal email for this stuff, as it will be spammed into oblivion for years! Asia is not quite as serious about their emails as we are :-)
  3. Converse, get a feel for things - Now see who messages you back and how serious it seems they are taking your business. Keep in mind that they are competing for your business at this point, and have no idea if you are looking to put in a $100 order or a $10,000 order. Their customer service at this point is a good indicator of where it will be in the future. Don’t be afraid to haggle and engaging in some price warring, they are much more used to that in China. It isn’t uncommon to see an item start at $200 and be sold for $20 in a Chinese tourist market. I could write a whole post on price negotiation, but the main thing with this is you have to low-ball your first counter offer to anchor the price possibility window at a lower level. You should get by fine with that.
  4. Samples! – Ah, finally….the fun part! Now we get to put in some small orders to get samples shipped directly to us. I usually get samples from 2-5 suppliers I am considering, but never just one. SERIOUSLY go over these samples when you get them. Also take note of shipping times, costs, damage, etc. Put the items through some stress, check every last nook and cranny of them. Think about how customers will be using them and push the item harder. You need something that is going to stand up if you are going to put your name behind it, so find something to be proud about selling.
*Note on Minimum Order Quantities* – I had a lot of people mention to me that the MOQ posted by many manufacturers is extremely high, so I figured I would paste my response here -
The minimum order they list is generally not concrete, and is most of the time their average or desired order size. There is no way to know for sure without messaging the suppliers directly, which is why I go for 15-30 initially.
In my experience, Chinese factories will go through many hoops to work with you on order sizes, unless they are a MASSIVE factory that only ships via sea. If they use normal air shipping at all, they shouldnt mind sending out even a single item via air (which is what they do with samples anyways).
Again, with some items it will be different than other. For instance I looked into selling LED lighting that attaches to the sides of buildings, and the margins looked great, but the MOQ ended up being somewhere around $5,000 of lights due to the purpose of the item (to run down entire high rise buildings). I skipped over that one.
Another option is AliExpress.com, Alibaba’s site for smaller orders. You will generally get better prices for the same amount on Alibaba if you are willing to put in the effort to communicate with suppliers, but AliExpress is always an option.
After all of this, you should have at least one solid supplier for a product you know will sell. Guess what’s next…

Step 2 – Selling Your Product Through Existing Sales Channels

At this point, you are going to have to make a decision about your inventory. If it were me, I would invest the couple hundred bucks and buy 5-10 pieces of my product to get started. You can certainly buy one at a time to start and that will work, it will just be a slower start.
I guess now is a good time to mention that I have not found drop shipping to be a viable option for somebody just starting out with a new supplier. The only times I have ever had successful drop ship relationships with suppliers is after a long and prosperous history, at which point they work with me to get their American distributors to drop ship. More on that later, but I thought I would mention it as you don’t want to do that just starting out, it almost always ends with unhappy customers and banned accounts.
Anyways, you need to get a few pieces of inventory and start selling them.
I only suggest using TWO of these THREE sales channels when first starting out – Amazon, eBay, Craigslist
Notice I did not say spam your friends on Facebook and every forum you can find about it. That is a ton of work and will produce very little result for you. Not once have a I tried to sell things to my Facebook friends, I barely even tell them what I am working on unless asked.
It is relatively easy to set up shop on all of these – I would just look at what the top sellers of your products are doing and then try to improve upon that. Most of the time, the copy text used in eBay and Amazon ads is free domain from the manufacturer, so you can get a lot from other sellers and simple Google searches.
Within a day or two after getting your product up, you should begin making sales. This is when things start to get really exciting. Just ship out your products at the closest post office and wait to see what happens. Make sure you ship as soon as you can and pack everything well obviously, but I am assuming you guys know how to ship things so I won’t go into much detail. Make sure you ship immediately, and make sure you pack it up well. I would also suggest throwing in a thank you note with a website or some way to turn these guys into recurring revenue (see below for more on this).
You should know pretty quickly if you are making money and what the problem areas are.
Within a month it should be painfully apparent if you need to find a new product or if you should scale up your current product.
If you can’t make a profit with your product on those sales channels, then I don’t think it is worth it to put any more effort into that specific product, and I would look for another product to sell.
Given that you are finding success with your product and have no deadly hiccups (lucky those don’t exist…), let’s move on to scaling this baby up.

Step 3 – SCALE!

After I had my airsoft guns up on eBay and Amazon, all I had to do was keep track of inventory and shipping.  Being 15 at this time, I was ecstatic.
I slowly started to add more products to eBay and Amazon, started sending out promotional materials with my shipments, began advertising, and started a brand name behind my business. My 20 order per day average quickly swelled to 30, 40, 50 sales per day.
Keep in mind that NONE of this would be possible if I didn’t find an awesome supplier in the first place. If you’re reading REALLY closely you’ll notice that I was 15 now, and it took a full 2 years of many mistakes and marginal success before I got to this point. Hopefully from reading this article, you can skip most of those mistakes and get right to the success.
I didn’t really know what I was doing and was kind of just throwing money at things and seeing what works. It was an awesome learning experience for me, and I learned a ton about what works and what doesn’t work in marketing and growing online sales.
Here is the stuff that I did to scale up my sales that will probably work for you -
  • Advertising with Amazon and eBay – I always made a solid return with these advertising programs, specifically Amazon.
  • Listing yourself on other sales channels – I eventually made an eCommerce store so that my products could be listen through the primitive versions of Google Shopping, Bing Shopping, and every other shopping venue I could find online. If I could put my items up and sell through them, I did. And each new channel gave me a little bit of growth for free.
  • Brand yourself – The days of branding yourself as “GreatAirsoftCompany.com” are long gone. You have to find a good brand name that resonates with the crowd you are selling to, and it will exponentially reward you over time. You can read this postto see how I decide on brand names.
  • Aim for recurring revenue – I started seeing solid growth from including coupons and promotional materials in each shipment. Eventually, I set up an email and SMS subscription that would send them deals and updates on airsoft items. I also set up a monthly subscription for airsoft pellets, which I couldn’t sell on eBay due to very small margins. The key here is to focus on siphoning off buyers from the pre-existing sales channels into your own lists and databases. That way, you can market to them for free on demand, rather than having no way to contact them after their first order.
And the stuff that didn’t work
  • PPC Advertising – Advertising outside of where I was selling never worked for me very well on this, however I was also very young and didn’t know much about running PPC campaigns. If you are already good with PPC, then try it. If not, I wouldnt even try until you have some money to lose.
  • Social Media – Just isnt going to work for importing. MAYBE you can find a way to do this if you are a really, really good social media marketer, but 99% of people are not going to get any sales from social media with this.
  • Pretty much anything I didn’t mention above – If I didn’t mention it above, I didn’t make enough money with it to remember it. I would stick to just the things I know work, which are littered all over this article.
If you are unsure about a marketing method you are thinking about trying, just comment below or email me and I will tell you what I know about them…
Keep in mind that the only money I was putting into this was reinvested earnings. You can certainly spend out of pocket to grow faster, but my goal in this post is keeping your risks low while still growing, and bootstrapping (funding your growth from internal operating revenue)  is the best way I know to do that.
If you follow this tutorial, you will eventually be where I was – making a solid 50 orders a day. At this point shipping and inventory are going to really start taking a toll on you and your time. You’ll want to work on moving in one of two directions -
  1. Negotiate better terms with your supplier – Once my supplier knows I am a valuable contact who will make him solid, easy money day in and day out, I am his golden boy. Now you can start to negotiate prices and shipping terms. I usually try to get some price cuts, but my main thing is getting the factory to drop ship (generally through a US office or distributor). If the factory can ship to my customers for me and handle returns, my business is next to automated. This is where I got with the airsoft stuff, and I loved it. A true “4 Hour Workweek“.
  2. Start outsourcing the processes – If you cant get your factory to drop ship to customers for you, you are going to want to get rid of that aspect of your business somehow. You will be making enough money by now to hire somebody to do the shipping for you locally. Try to get somebody local (a friend or family member) to start, as it is much easier, safer, and cheaper to manage a friend than an employee. Hire a VA to send the orders to your friend, keep your listings running smoothly, respond to customers immediately, and order inventory.
If you get past this point, it is really up to you where to take it. I preferred to keep it at this level (automated cash flow), but you could certainly grow this as large as you wanted to. There is no real limit on how much money an importing business can make, and you have built a solid foundation to build off of.

The Fall of My Empire

At this point, there was very little that could go wrong. Short of some horrible unforeseen event taking place, I had a steady stream of automated income coming in – one of the first ones I had ever built.
Then there was a horrible unforeseen event…
I don’t remember the exact circumstances, but the Chinese ports suddenly stopped shipping airsoft guns out. For over 3 months, I couldnt get any airsoft guns out of China.
I know it was more than 3 months, because that is when I was forced to throw in the towel.
I searched around for a replacement supplier from anywhere I could, but the prices had just skyrocketed. On top of that, I had a bunch of orders I couldn’t fill and angry customers…
With many new projects sprouting up, and being only 16 at the time, I refunded everybody and moved on…
I did make enough money to invest elsewhere, most of which was lost on other ventures. I learned more than I did in my entire schooling career with this business, and I hope I communicated everything well enough to expedite your learning curve.
The only thing to do now, if you haven’t been this entire time already, is TAKE ACTION! If this strategy intrigues you, get out there and at least try to put this stuff into action. Make it happen!
Please comment below if you have any problems, questions, or suggestions with any part of this – I will be responding to everything immediately for the next couple of days.
Good luck, and talk to you below!
Note – I have since written a follow up to this post called “Step-by-Step Guide on How To Find A Profitable Product To Sell”

Fasa H : Membuat keputusan untuk membeli

Index Fasa
Fasa A : Pengenalan serta Persediaan Bakal Usahawan  (Done)
Fasa B : Kenalpasti Jenis Perniagaan dan Dimana? (Done)
Fasa C : Modal serta Rancangan Perniagaan (Done)
Fasa D : Penyediaan Sistem Jaringan Perniagaan "Networking' (Done)
Fasa E : Penyediaan Sistem "Logistic" (Done)
Fasa F : Permulaan Berhubung Dengan Pembekal atau Pengilang (Done)
Fasa G : Cara Negosiasi yang Efektif dengan Pembekal serta Pengilang (Done)
Fasa H : Membuat keputusan untuk membeli
Fasa I  : Membawa masuk Barangan ke Malaysia
Fasa J :  Memasarkan Barangan

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Fasa H : Membuat keputusan untuk membeli




Carta 1: Proses membuat keputusan



Carta 2: Aliran proses membuat keputusan dengan 5 Langkah.



Artikel di bawah adalah satu kajian yang telah dibuat oleh Khong Siew Mei seorang pelajar University sains Malaysia, Pulau Pinang tentang proses untuk membuat keputusan. Di akhir pembacaan ini, diharapkan semua usahawan dapat mengetahui cara baimana untuk berfikir dengan jelas bagi membuat keputusan samada untuk membeli sesuatu produck tersebut ataupun masih ada alternatif untuk mereka jadikan gantian bagi produk tersebut. Ianya boleh digunakan sebagai satu model ataupun satu bingkai bagi membantu kita tahu apa yang kita cari didalam produk-produk tersebut.






 1.0  PENGENALAN 

Proses Membuat Keputusan merupakan proses yang paling penting untuk kesempurnaan dalam bidang pengurusan untuk semua organisasi. Proses membuat keputusan bukan hanya wujud dalam bidang pengurusan tetapi juga dihadapi oleh setiap individu, baik keputusan tentang diri sendiri, keluarga, di rumah dan di tempat kerja. Kadang-kala kehidupan kita boleh dirasakan terdiri daripada beribu-ribu keputusan, baik kecil mahupun yang besar.

        1.1 DEFINISI 

Keputusan merujuk kepada pilihan yang dibuat melalui pelbagai alternatif yang sedia ada. Pilihan merupakan suatu fungsi kepada objektif si pembuat keputusan tadi, maka dalam penilaian alternatif untuk dipilih, si pembuat juga berminat untuk mengetahui akibat daripada tindakan, ekoran daripada pilihan yang dibuatnya. Pilihan juga melibatkan elemen ketakpastian.
Banyak definisi wujud mengenai proses membuat keputusan dan perkataan ‘keputusan’. Iaitu: 
Menurut, Ofstad

To say that a person has made a decision may mean: 

(a) that he has started a series of behavioral reactions in favor of something, or it may mean 
(b) that he has made up his mind to do certain action, which he has no doubts that he ought to do. But perhaps the most common use of the term is this: ‘to make a decision’. 
(c) To make a judgement regarding what one ought to do in a certain situation after having deliberated on some alternative courses of action.1
Menurut, Herbert A. Simon dalam kerja atas Keputusan bagi pengurusan sains, menganggap pembuat keputusan sebagai satu proses yang sama dengan seluruh proses pengurusan.
Decision making comprises three principal phases: finding occasions for making a decision; finding possible courses of action; and choosing among courses of action.


        1.2 MATLAMAT 

Tujuan kita mengadakan membuat keputusan adalah untuk memberi pendedahan kepada teknik-teknik penyelesaian masalah dan mengutarakan cara pembuatan keputusan secara individu dan berkumpulan. Biasanya dalam proses membuat keputusan, kita haruslah mengutamakan tiga perkara iaitu: (i) Proses Membuat Keputusan, (ii) Orang yang Membuat Keputusan dan (iii) Keputusan yang dijana itu.


        1.3 KAEDAH KERAS & KAEDAH LEMBUT 

Terdapat dua kaedah yang merupakan alat penilaian dalam proses membuat keputusan, iaitu keras dan lembut. Kaedah membuat keputusan secara keras berciri objektif, kuantitatif, menggunakan logik yang rasmi serta berbentuk jangka pendek. Pendekatan rasional digunakan dan dijalankan untuk masalah-masalah yang berjurus kepada fizikal dan teknikal.
Kaedah membuat keputusan secara lembut adalah lebih subjektif, kualitatif, menggunakan logik yang tidak rasmi serta berbentuk jangka panjang.  Di samping itu, ia digunakan untuk masalah yang berbentuk kemanusiaan atau pengurusan.



  
  
  






2.0  PROSES PEMBUATAN KEPUTUSAN YANG EFEKTIF 

Terdapat enam langkah yang penting dan terlibat dalam proses pembuatan keputusan yang efektif iaitu kenalpasti keperluan, situasi dan masalah, diagnosis dan analisis sebab, pembentukan alternatif, pemilihan alternatif, pelaksanaan alternatif dan penilaian dan maklum balas. (Rajah 2.0-a)


 


2.1 Mengenalpasti Keperluan, Situasi & Masalah 

Ia merupakan langkah pertama dalam membuat sesuatu keputusan. Keperluan ini selalunya dalam bentuk masalah atau peluang. Dalam memilih sesuatu masalah dan peluang, kita bolehlah menggunakan kriteria berikut: 
a) Kawalan- Sejauh manakah kita boleh mengawal masalah tersebut dan penyelesaiannya? 
b) Kepentingan- Darjah kepentingan masalah tersebut. 
c) Kerumitan- Bagaimanakah rumitnya untuk mencari penyelesaian. 
d) Masa- Jangka masa yang akan didapati daripada menyelesaikan masalah tersebut. 
e) Sumber- Sumber-sumber yang diperlukan.
Mengenalpasti masalah yang betul adalah penting kerana mengenalpastikan masalah yang salah akan mempengaruhi proses membuat keputusan yang selanjutnya.

        2.2 Diagnosis & Analisis Data 

Dalam menganalisis sesuatu masalah, kita boleh mengumpulkan semua data dan mempamerkan maklumat yang berkaitan supaya membantu dalam membuat keputusan.
       2.3 Pembentukan Alternatif
Kita boleh mengembang atau satukan alternatif atau menciptakan alternatif baru. Adalah dicadangkan supaya kita berwaspada dengan alternatif yang tersedia. Juga dicadangkan supaya pertimbangkan dibuat tentang batasan dan peluang dalam membincangkan setiap idea dan juga pertimbangkan alternatif lama kepada masalah yang sama.


        2.4 Pemilihan Alternatif 

Dalam pemilihan sesuatu alternatif, kita perlu pertimbangkan kriteria berikut: 
a) Kawalan: Adakah pelaksanaan alternatif ini dalam kawalan anda/kita? 
b) Kesesuaian: Adakah alternatif ini menyelesaikan masalah tersebut? 
c) Keperluan Sumber: Mampukah kita melaksanakannya (manusia, wang, peralatan, dsb)? 
d) Faedah: Adakah ia berfaedah? 
e) Masa: Berapa lama sebelum kita dapat lihat hasilnya? 
f) Kebolehterimaan: Adakah ahli dalam organisasi akan menerimanya?


        2.5 Perlaksanaan Alternatif

Pelaksanaan alternatif yang terpilih memerlukan perancangan yang terperinci. Ini boleh dilakukan dengan memikirkan strategi pelaksanaan. Soalan-soalan berikut boleh digunakan untuk membentuk strategi pelaksanaan:

a) Kebolehterimaan: Bagaimanakah kita boleh mendapatkan penerimaan dari orang lain? Apakah faedah yang boleh kita tonjolkan dari alternatif ini? Bagaimana boleh kita tunjukkan faedah tersebut? 
b) Jangkaan: Apakah tentangan yang boleh kita jangka kepada alternatif ini? Bagaimanakah patut kita mengatasinya? 
c) Bantuan: Bagaimanakah kita boleh mendapat bantuan dari orang atau kumpulan lain? 
d) Lokasi: Di manakah patut kita laksanakan alternatif ini? 
e) Masa: Bagaimanakah boleh kita mengambil kesempatan hari, masa dan tarikh tertentu untuk melaksanakan alternatif ini? 
f) Berhati-hati: Bagaimanakah boleh kita uji keberkesanan alternatif ini?


        2.6 Penilaian & Maklum Balas

Semasa pelaksanaan, kita patut memastikan bahawa alternatif yang dipilih itu merupakan alternatif yang paling berkesan. Untuk mengukur keberkesanan alternatif tersebut, kita haruslah fikirkan:

a) Ukuran: Maklumat apakah yang perlu dikumpulkan? Awasi? 
b) Alat Analisis: Alat apakah yang akan digunakan untuk menganalisis dan mempamerkan maklumat? 
c) Ujian: Apakah ujian atau ‘trial run’ yang akan kita awasi untuk melihat keberkesanan alternatif itu? Bagaimanakah akan kita menilai keputusannya? 
d) Keputusan: Apakah kriteria yang akan kita gunakan? Bilakah kita menjalankan penilaian terakhir? Apakah bukti alternatif kita berkesan? 
  

 3.0 KAJIAN KES 
  

Untuk mempraktikan teori-teori Proses Membuat Keputusan dalam keadaan yang sebenar, saya akan menggunakan projek yang telah kumpulan kami kaji dalam Studio Pengurusan 300. Projek Bayan World Megamall merupakan projek yang telah terbenkalai selama lebih kurang 2 tahun. Projek ini adalah jenis komersil. Saya akan mengaplikasikan sekurang-kurangnya satu pendekatan untuk mengatasi masalah yang akan wujud dalam keenam-enam peringkat proses pembuatan keputusan. Pemilihan dan penggunaan teknik-teknik yang sesuai untuk penyelesaian masalah adalah penting dalam proses membuat keputusan yang baik.
        3.1 KENALPASTI KEPERLUAN, SITUASI DAN MASLAH
Dalam Projek Bayan World Megamall, masalah yang menyebabkan kebengkalaian projek adalah disebabkan oleh faktor dalaman dan faktor luaran.
Faktor-faktor Dalaman adalah terdiri daripada;
Sistem Pengurusan yang lemah.
Masalah Kewangan.
Faktor-faktor Luaran adalah terdiri daripada;
Keadaan Pasaran
Kegawatan Ekonomi.
Persaingan dalam Industri Binaan.
SWOT Analysis digunakan untuk mengenalpasti masalah yang wujud ini dengan lebih teliti dan jelas lalu mencari penyelesaian dan mengenalpasti faktor-faktor strategi yang berkaitan dalam membuat keputusan. Analisis SWOT merupakan kaedah lembut dalam proses membuat keputusan.

Tujuan utama ialah analisis SWOT adalah mengenalpasti sifat-sifat seperti Kekuatan (strength), Kelemahan (weakness), Peluang (opportunities), dan Ancaman (threats). Tujuan utama ini bukan sahaja membina analisis SWOT tetapi adalah untuk menterjemahkan keputusan analisis itu kepada langkah-langkah yang khusus untuk membantu mengembangkan sesebuah firma dengan jayanya. Walaupun analisis SWOT merupakan satu pandangan ringkas terhadap situasi analisis, hal ini adalah berdasarkan 4 asas yang penting iaitu: 

  a) Mengenalpasti trend dalam industri 
b) Mengenalpasti pesaing-pesaing industri 
c) Menilai firma sendiri 
d) Menyelidik pelanggan yang sedia ada dan perspektifnya.

Jadual di bawah adalah Analisis SWOT dengan menganalisis faktor dalaman dan faktor luaran yang mempengaruhi peluang dan ancaman pasaran oleh Projek Bayan World Megamall dengan secara am. 

  
  

Faktor Dalaman 

Kekuatan 

Kelemahan

Pengurusan
Merupakan syarikat yang terkenal dan mempunyai pengalaman dalam bidang pembinaan. Kontraktor-kontraktor yang mengakibatkan projek berhenti sebab masalah pengurusan dan kewangan.

Kewangan
Syarikat Anson Perdana merupakan syarikat yang public listed dan mempunyai banyak modal. Kebanyakan modal terikat dalam plantation estate kerana hasil plantation ini tidak dapat dijual.




Faktor Luaran

Peluang

Ancaman

Pasaran
 Lokasi yang strategi, sistem pengangkutan yang baik dan merupakan bangunan komersil yang terbesar di kawasan itu.Pasaran terhadap ruang niaga di Pulau Pinang adalah mengalami lebihan penawaran.

Ekonomi 
Pendapatan penduduk semakin meningkat dan ini menggalakkan.Kegawatan ekonomi berlaku.

Persaingan
Rekabentuk dan teknologi binaan yang canggih.Kompleks Bukit Jambul dan Kompleks Pasific.




        3.2 DIAGNOSIS DAN ANALISIS SEBAB 

Jika masalah-masalah telah dikenalpasti maka kita boleh menggunakan alat-alat penganalisis untuk mengumpul dan mempamerkan maklumat. Pada peringkat ini, Analisis Sensitiviti digunakan dan ia merupakan Kaedah Keras dalam proses membuat keputusan. Maklumat-maklumat yang perlu untuk menghasilkan Analisis Sensitiviti boleh didapati daripada pelbagai sektor, seperti laporan ekonomi, jabatan-jabatan berkanun dan kerajaan seperti Jabatan Penilaian dan perkhidmatan harta dan sebagainya untuk mendapat maklumat terkini tentang kajian pasaran yang terkini.

Dalam analisis Sensitiviti, perubahan harga buruh dan masa dapat mempengaruhi kos pembinaan keseluruhan projek.  Dalam analisis ini, kita dapat memerhatikan secara jelas bagaimana perubahan yang sedikit dalam sebahagian kos pembinaan akan memberikan perubahan yang ketara dalam bahagian yang lain. Dengan ini, maka dapat dijangkakan risiko dan ketidakpastian yang wujud.  Melalui analisis ini, adalah senang memberikan gambaran yang jelas kepada pelabur sejauh mana sesuatu projek pembangunan dapat dilaksanakan atau tidak kerana keputusan dalam analisis ini memberikan penyelesaian yang cepat dan mengambilkira risiko yang akan dihadapi supaya memberi satu batasan kepada pelabur tentang kejayaan projek. 
       3.3 PEMBENTUKAN ALTERNATIF
Apabila masalah-masalah dan keperluan telah dikenalpasti dan telah mendapat penyelesaian maka kita akan memasuki dalam proses pembentukan alternatif-alternatif baru.
Teknik Brainstorming adalah digunakan dalam peringkat itu untuk menjanakan alternatif dan ia merupakan Kaedah Lembut dalam proses membuat keputusan. Brainstorming merupakan satu teknik yang menggalakkan ahli-ahli kumpulan untuk melahirkan seberapa banyak idea yang aneh dan ganjil yang mungkin dalam sebuah topik tanpa menilaikannya. Terdapat empat peraturan semasa menggunakan teknik Brainstorming, iaitu:
a) Tiada penilaian tentang idea yang dijanakan. 
b) Galakan idea yang ‘gila’ (freewheel). 
c) Tambahkan kepada idea yang telah diberikan. 
d) Fokuskan kepada kuantiti idea, bukan kualiti.
Walaupun Brainstorming adalah khususnya dijalankan dalam satu kumpulan, hukumnya boleh digunakan secara individu. Pengurus mengambil beberapa langkah penyelesaian yang mungkin termasuk idea-idea yang bernilai dan cuba melahirkan satu kapasiti idea yang tinggi dan menggabungkan idea-idea semasa. Cara-cara yang lain untuk melahirkan idea-idea baru akan dinilaikan dengan lebih lanjut apabila kita membincangkan kekreatifan. Dalam pada itu, hal ini adalah penting untuk memberi perhatian kepada sejumlah alternatif yang harus dilahirkan semasa fasa membuat keputusan.
Selain itu, Nominal Group Technique (NGT) juga diaplikasikan dalam peringkat ini dan teknik ini merupakan Kaedah Lembut dalam proses membuat keputusan. NGT merupakan teknik yang menggabungkan kerja individu dan kumpulan yang saling bertindak dalam ‘ground rules’ yang tertentu. Teknik ini dimajukan adalah untuk memelihara individu dan kumpulan, dan untuk mengatasi kecenderungan ahli kumpulan untuk mengkritik idea-idea yang telah dibentuk.
Selepas menggunakan teknik Brainstorming dan teknik Nominal Group, alternatif-alternatif yang terbentuk untuk mengatasi Projek Bayan World Megamall yang terbenkalai adalah seperti berikut:
Alternatif 1

Ruang Niaga – 70% dijual dan 30% disewakan. 
Anchor Tenant Disewa 
Pembinaan mini water world dibatalkan.

Alternatif 2

Ruang Niaga- 80% dijual dan 20% disewa. 
Anchor Tenant dijual 
Pembinaan mini water world dibatalkan.


        3.4 PEMILIHAN ALTERNATIF

Terdapat 2 alternatif telah dibentuk dalam projek megamall itu. Pendekatan Groupthink telah digunakan dalam menjalankan pemilihan alternatifdan ia merupakan jenis Kaedah Lembut. Groupthink merupakan satu kecenderungan dalam perpaduan sesuatu kumpulan untuk mencari persetujuan bagi isu dalam merealistikkan penilaian dalam situasi. Menurut teori dalam Groupthink, ahli kumpulan adalah menumpukan perhatian dalam memelihara perpaduan dalam kumpulan dan mereka adalah enggan membangkitkan isu yang akan menyebabkan perselisihan atau membekalkan maklumat yang akan membuktikan kecemasan dalam perbincangan.
Kelebihan-kelebihan yang wujud dalam Groupthink ialah: 
a) Banyak maklumat dan pengetahuan yang akan difokuskan pada sesuatu isu. 
b) Pertambahan bilangan dan mempelbagaikan alternatif yang boleh dimajukan. 
c) Pemahaman yang baik dalam penerimaan keputusan akhir. 
d) Ahli kumpulan akan membentukkan pengetahuan dan kemahiran untuk kegunaan masa depan.
Kaedah Nilai Kini Bersih (NKB) juga digunakan dalam memilih alternatif dan ia merupakan Kaedah Keras dalam membuat keputusan. NKB untuk menguji kedayamajuan kedua-dua alternatif yang dijanakan ini, maka, aliran tunai disediakan dan didiskaunkan dengan kadar diskaun tertentu.  Andaian-andaian juga dinyatakan secara jelas dan terang supaya ia adalah penting dalam meneruskan sesuatu penilaian dengan kaedah-kaedah ini.
Untuk kaedah NKB, nilai kini semua pendapatan masa hadapan dari sesuatu pelaburan dibandingkan dengan semua perbelanjaan masa depan.  Jika nilai kini pendapatan melebihi nilai kini perbelanjaan , maka boleh diperkatakan projek itu menguntungkan.

Selepas menggunakan pendekatan Groupthink dan pendekatan Nilai Kini Bersih, maka alternatif 1 telah dipilih untuk dilaksanakan. 

        3.5 PELAKSANAAN ALTERNATIF YANG TERPILIH 

Selepas diketahui bahawa alternatif telah dipilih, maka satu strategi pelaksanaan telah disediakan untuk menjayakan pelaksanaan alternatif itu. Strategi pelaksanaan yang digunakan ialah Teknologi, Struktur & Human Resources. Strategi ini merupakan Kaedah Lembut dalam proses membuat keputusan.
Strategi Teknologi melibatkan pengetahuan, peralatan, lekapan dan teknik kerja yang digunakan oleh sesebuah organisasi untuk melaksanakan sesuatu projek. Teknologi merupakan faktor yang penting dalam strategi pelaksanaan.
Strategi Struktur organisasi merupakan contoh yang formal dalam mengeratkan dan mengkoordinasikan individu dan kumpulan untuk mencapai maklamat organisasi.
Strategi Human Resources adalah pekerja-pekerja dalam sesebuah organisasi. Pengalaman dan kemahiran pekerja merupakan satu kelebihan aset dalam persaingan.
Dalam melaksanakan alternatif 1 yang telah dipilih maka pemaju akan membawa teknologi binaan dan rekabentuk yang canggih dan kontraktor-komtraktor dan konsultant-konsultant yang berpengalaman dan mahir untuk meneruskan projek itu.


        3.6 PENILAIAN DAN MAKLUM BALAS

Kriteria keputusan yang telah dibentuk bagi menghuraikan jenis keputusan yang telah dibuat adalah Pendekatan Maksimin. Pendekatan ini telah dikemukakan oleh Wald dan andaian dibuat dalam pendekatan terlalu pesimistik. Keputusannya pula melibatkan risiko yang minimum dan keterjaminan pulangan yang positif. Faktor yang boleh ‘merosakkan’ keputusan ialah kejatuhan pasaran harta.

Pemaju Projek Bayan World Megamall adalah lebih bersifat konservatif dan pemaju yang ingin menggunakannya secara tekal. Oleh itu pendekatan Maksimin telah dipilih. 


        3.7 RUMUSAN

Jadual berikut adalah Matrik Proses Kajian Kedayamajuan Berdasarkan Projek Bayan World Megamall Yang Terbengkalai.

Proses 
Membuat Keputusaan

Jenis Masalah 
Kaedah Keras

Jenis Masalah 
Kaedah Lembut
1. Kenalpasti Keperluan,
    Situasi & Masalah

Analisis SWOT
2. Diagnosis & Analisis SebabAnalisis Sensitiviti
3. Pembentukan Alternatif
Brainstorming & Nominal Group Technique.
4. Pemilihan Alternatif
Kaedah Nilai Kini Bersih

Groupthink 
5. Pelaksanaan Alternatif
    Terpilih

Teknologi, Struktur & Human Resources
6. Penilaian & Maklum Balas
Pendekatan Maksimin




 



 

4.0  KESIMPULAN

Projek Bayan World Megamall merupakan projek yang terbengkalai selama lebih kurang dua tahun. Masalah atau punca utama projek ini terbengkalai adalah disebabkan oleh kewangan. Dengan itu, projek ini telah dikaji semula dan keputusan haruslah dibuat dengan cermat dan berwaspasda dengan mengambilkira ketidakpastian dan risiko yang wujud dalam projek ini. Keputusan yang efektif mungkin dapat menghidupkan projek ini dan mungkin dapat mengaut keuntungan dan sebaliknya jika keputusan yang dibuat adalah tidak efektif maka projek ini mungkin akan diberhentikan sahaja. Oleh itu, penghasilan keputusan yang efektif adalah penting.
 Dalam pada itu, enam langkah membuat keputusan yang efektif telah diaplikasikan dalam projek ini supaya dapat menghasilkan keputusan yang efektif dan mengenalpasti masalah dan peluang untuk mencari penyelesaian kepada projek itu. Biasanya, terdapat 2 keputusan yang umum akan wujud dalam proses ini, iaitu terpogram dan tidak terpogram.
Pada pendapat saya, pembuatan keputusan berkumpulan harus digalakkan dalam menghasilkan keputusan atau mencari jalan penyelesian. Oleh itu dalam enam proses pembuatan keputusan yang telah dibincangkan atas, saya amat fokus kepada pembuatan keputusan berkumpulan dan saya telah mengaplikasikan teknik-teknik seperti Groupthink, Nominal Group Technique dan Brainstorming. Ini adalah disebabkan pembuatan keputusan berkumpulan dapat menghasilkan perspektif yang lebih besar mengenai masalah dan analisis. Selain itu, juga lebih pengetahuan, fakta dan alternatif yang boleh dinilai.

 

5.0  BIBLIOGRAFI

1. Peter Byrne David Cadman, 1993, Risiko, Ketakpastian dan Membuat Keputusan dalam Pemabangunan Harta, DBP Kuala Lumpur  .

2. Zainal Ariffin Ahmad, 1998, Perlakuan Organisasi, Penerbit Fajar Bakti .

3. Kathryn M. Bartol & David C. Martin, 1998, Management, Irwin McGraw-Hill.


4. Berkowitz, Kerin, Hartley and Rudelius, 1997, Marketing, Irwin McGraw-Hill.